This post is published in 2024, but drafted in 2022. I wrote it without any real desire to publish it, but when I reread it two years later I felt it was worth sharing finally. Perhaps what pushes me to publish it now is that I just saw this video about workers in the video game industry striking: https://youtu.be/W1ZO8GjRaVA?si=4SXqdt0dDZMoaMI7.
I’m generally pleased with how this essay holds up (so far), and I figure there’s not too much to lose/gain by sharing it now.
The first links below are to the three Text-to-Image generators that I know about so far. All represent years of work in AI and machine learning development, and each of them are only going to improve in the months and years ahead. Please remember this point because it’s critical for everyone to understand – these are only going to get better.
https://imagen.research.google
This next link is to a working AI designer that I learned about last year. It is actively working with clients.
I’m about to make a few predictions that you can either take or leave. I’m a working illustrator, cartoonist, and graphic designer and I follow those industries pretty closely; and technology especially closely because I love how the tools make my life easier and my production faster. I am not well known or established in what I do, and so you may decide that these predictions lack credibility because of that. I’ve also spent a majority of my working life in different non-art related jobs – doing everything from customer service, delivery, training, management, logistics, human resources, to managing vendor relationships and event planning. Again – you may decide that I’m not specialized enough to understand the realities of the industries I’m about to make predictions for.
I also think predictions in general are pretty useless – there’s hardly ever any I’ve paid attention to that proved accurate.
So here I go.
Visual arts are about to undergo an upheaval tantamount to what happened to them when hand copied books were replaced by Gutenberg’s printing press, engraving illustration was replaced by photography, and when the newspapers collapse took down an industry of syndicated comics. This is already happening, and we’re at the front end of a bell curve that could make all the forms of illustration, graphic art, and photography as simple to acquire as it is right now using a search engine to find an answer.
The general way these Text-to-Image generators work is that you feed them images, and they learn from them and learn how to mimic the characteristics that define those images. I could take my entire portfolio, feed it to one AI, and then ask it to create completely new work that looks like my own, with only text prompts. Using what it already knows and adding to its tools the understanding of my artwork’s particular look and style, new works that faithfully mimic my own are available within moments.
This all begs an obvious question – why am I required to do the artwork anymore? From my own standpoint, I can use these AI’s to optimize my production so that work that took days can suddenly be ready by tomorrow afternoon. I can make more work with the same quality as before, and I can charge less for it and compete against anyone still creating art in a traditional way. And my craft is suddenly much easier to mimic by anyone, not just myself – so I can hire others to create work that I never even touched.
From a client’s standpoint – why hire an artist again at all? If an AI can generate an image that is 90% close to perfect (so far), why not just have a staff production artist clean up the rough edges and get it to me much faster and far cheaper than any professional artist could ever hope to compete with? Why do I need to bother waiting for artwork when an article, book, and or magazine is ready to print now? Why do I need to hire concept artists for a movie or video game when I can save so much money NOT hiring any? Studios will just use AI to generate concepts based on what the directors and producers ask for, and give those to the production artists to make into costumes, sets, characters and anything else.
Understand that this isn’t going to leave anything untouched: 3D modeling, animation, and even playable video games are all being actively generated at this moment by AI – and this list only reflects what I’ve personally seen for myself. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if motion graphics, video editing, UX, and layout are already being worked on by AI and machine learning engineers. The potential for profit from these new technologies is too promising, too tempting, and impossible to ignore if these companies wish to stay competitive. There is going to be plenty of competition to make better Text-to-Image generators for years to come.
Because of the disruptive nature of a Text-to-Image generator influx into the visual arts industry, I predict there’s going to be a lot of push back from traditional industry bastions. Certain magazines; game, animation and movie studios; printers; and publishers will espouse policies that stand against the wave of AI created images and content. They will work to maintain the relationships they’ve developed with the creators whose careers they help support. But then they will have to eventually make a decision to stay profitable and change course.
There are other things to consider – the legal implications affecting copyright, and arts education. Finally, I need to address the possibilities that open up because of this too.
One particularly puzzling concern is the nature of copyright in the face of AI generated content. Who is the author? Is it the AI? The person typing the prompt? The artist who had their work sampled by the AI? If I use AI work and modify it to make it better – do I own the work or is it a collaboration? This is perhaps one of the most pressing issues for the creative community because copyright is essentially how we make our living. Copyright is the value you or I sell when we let a client use something we create – and how we sell it determines how well we make our living. If AI touches any aspect of our product, do we still get to profit from it like we did before?
I have no idea what will happen to art schools, I suspect their outlook isn’t good though. If I were to guess, the for-profit schools won’t stay solvent after the current commercial arts industry has collapsed. Fine art institutions, particularly those that are part of larger university systems, most likely have a better chance to continue to teach the next generation of craftspeople, but the likelihood those students will work full time off their training is something I wouldn’t bet on. The fact is that historically, most college arts training is geared for training employees – not entrepreneurs. Art students are taught to be production workers, and therefore it’s difficult to imagine how they can work in a field that will be dominated by AI.
All of this doomsaying isn’t negating the utility, purpose and importance of artists in the future. I for one think that there’s a lot of promise in finding out how we can work with AI to create better visuals and overcome the hurdles that production time used to put in our way. What video games can one person create now versus in the future? How many movies and shows are in the pipeline once a single person has the ability to create production level work worthy of a movie screen? How much better can visual communications help people work and live together when there’s ample opportunity and resources to iterate and improve within the same day? The future is a world of production studios on every person’s desk, laptop and tablet. There is going to be a flood of work; and those who are genuinely creative and gifted will have less barriers than ever to create something monumental. There are fewer gate keepers than ever tomorrow.
This is my message to anyone asking “what should I do?” Learn about these products. Think about the possibilities and be excited about it. If you fear your current career is about to implode because of them – adapt if you can, but otherwise prepare for a difficult transition right away. If you’re living paycheck to paycheck already as a creative, it’s imperative that you find another source of income until you figure out what happens next.
Creatives – think about your own personal work; the work you wanted to do but no one ever was going to pay you for. The opportunity to do it is quickly approaching – and it potentially can be very exciting if you’re ready for it before anyone else is. Just realize that the work other people need might not be there for you any longer.
I will finish by saying this – I’m neither optimistic nor am I pessimistic about what’s next for visual arts. I’m only trying to prepare for the turbulence and get ready to react to what’s approaching. I believe everyone in the various creative industries should do the same, but I urge you not rely on any corporation or institution to look out for individuals’ self interests. Ultimately the market will seek out profitability and that means cutting costs and streamlining production. If you, as a creative person, discover an opportunity to bring value to the market – you’ll be rewarded as long as you’re savvy to what you’re offering and why it’s valuable. I think you’ll also present the next goal post for AI to head toward – so capitalize on any success while you can.